
When gold hit $700 per oz, it brought the
price to a negative 7% compared to a year ago. This would roughly mirror
the huge correction "within" the bull market we saw from 1970 to 1980.
The same Bull Run that took gold from $34.50oz. In January 1970, to
$850oz. by January 1980, that's roughly a 2,450% increase!
The question still
lies... Why has gold dropped?
I challenge you to see things for what
they really are, in terms of U.S. dollars; Gold has indeed dropped from
its March highs of $1,000 per oz.
That's only because gold is traded in U.S. dollars and the U.S. dollar has rose so much against other
currencies. In fact, if you are in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, or
most other countries, gold is actually at an all time high!
Let's take a closer look at the reasons
the U.S. dollar has surged higher.
To say the U.S. dollar rally is real or
sustainable is like saying everything we know about economics is wrong!
How can the U.S. dollar get stronger as the U.S. economy deteriorates?
The obvious answer is
that it can't!
The U.S. dollar is being devalued at an
alarming rate. Faster than what took place in Argentina, Mexico, and
Russia put together. The only difference is that our government has
better ways to hide it.
Just think about the recent bailouts, how
much has our government thrown down the endless "bail out hole"...
Let's add it up!
- $800 billion to support mortgage
consumer debt
- $100 billion for Fannie Mae
- $100 billion for Freddie Mac
- $150 billion for Stimulus
package (from January)
- $8 billion for Indymac
- $29 billion for Bear Stearns
- $ 700 billion for Wall Street (
Bank of America; Merrill Lynch, City Group, JP Morgan,
Washington Mutual, Wells Fargo; Wachovia, Morgan Stanley,
Goldman Sachs...)
- $143.8 Billion for AIG ( which
keeps growing)
- $25 Billion for the big three in
Detroit
- $138 billion for Lehman Brothers
(post bankruptcy) through JP Morgan
- $50 Billion for money market
funds
- $ 620 billion for general
currency swaps from the feds
Totaling :
$2,863,800,000,000
This doesn't include the hundreds of
billions the feds have and will continue to buy in commercial paper.
Plus, what they lend out to other financial firms.
Not to mention, the feds recent supply of
new credit lines to Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, and Singapore to "help
those countries deal with the global credit crisis." The feds will
start at $30 billion and have promised up to $100 billion dollars per
country.
Can someone say
HYPER-INFLATION !
If you can't see where the U.S. dollar
and gold are headed, I'll be crystal clear! The dollar is going in the
exact same direction as the Zimbabwe dollar and Mexican peso. Between
the last devaluations of the peso, it's lost 99.9%. If you want to know
the price of gold in old pesos; you just have to multiply gold by
100,000.
With everything that has taken place,
many "main-stream" TV commentators believe or want us to believe,
that the U.S. dollar is now the currency of choice; a safe haven or
flight to quality.
Nothing can be further from the truth.
The fact is that the U.S. dollar is now
seen as a liability, not an asset. More and more countries are walking
away from it.
The reason the U.S. dollar has gone
higher is due to the $598 trillion dollar derivatives market. You see,
hedge funds have over leveraged themselves and have been hit with
tremendous margin calls as markets move against them. They have been
forced to liquidate their investments overseas, which is why overseas
markets are now crashing. They're liquidating to come up with equity
to pay off margin accounts, which need to be paid off in U.S. dollars.
The dollar is NOT rising because it's a
"safe haven" or a flight to quality; but rather to satisfy U.S. margin
accounts. Remember until further notice, margin accounts in most
emerging world markets can also be satisfied in U.S. dollars hence, the
surge in demand for the U.S. dollar over the past few weeks.
Now let's talk about deflation.
It's true deflation is here! Deflation is a normal stage in any
depressionary economic cycle. Prices of goods and services are going
down, they have to. We have an over inventory of cars, electronics,
homes, etc... The universal law of supply and demand kicks in. Sellers
of goods and services are forced to devalue their prices in order to
attract buyers. Regardless of lower prices, people just aren't buying.
Have no fear, deflation won't be here
long. The un-federal reserve assures us of that, every time they
create money out of thin air.
Hyper inflation is
just around the corner!
Anyone with a head on their shoulders
knows that current consumer price index (CPI) is phony! Real inflation
is much higher then government reported numbers.
Whether you believe hyper inflation is
coming or not, you better prepare for it.
It happened to the Argentina, Russia,
Germany, and recently to Zimbabwe.
It's true; our government is just as irresponsible
in their creation of money.
Another key issue that's looming on the
horizon is the five dollar floor for mutual funds. By law, mutual
funds have to sell out of stocks that are trading under $5 per share.
With the recent drop in the Dow, a lot of stocks are getting dangerously
close to that mark, and when they get there, all mutual funds holding
that stock, will have to sell it, creating a snow ball effect. Plus
don't forget we are walking into the worst retail Christmas season, ever
forecasted. When the depressing numbers hit Wall Street, get ready to
see the DOW take another dive!
Now
let's talk about the nasty rumor of market manipulation
and price fixing in the gold and silver markets.
The commodity futures trading commission
(CFTC) puts out the "Commitments of Traders" (COT) reports. In where the
public can clearly see the net long or short positions held by
non-commercial and commercial institutions in all exchange trade
commodity markets. Well, without dragging this out.. It's true! Up until
the first week of November, two well known bullion banks held %76
of all the short positions in the silver pits and the same two
Institutions also held 60% of all the short positions in the gold pits
at the New York Mercantile Exchange and the COMEX division.
The question is, "can this go on
forever"? The answer is NO!
In fact, the CFTC is now in an active
investigation of both the gold and silver pits.
Plus! At or before the expiration of the
specified futures contract (gold/silver) all short positions must be
satisfied by either the sale of the commodity (gold and silver) or the
buying back of the short position. Well, we know they can't sell metals
they don't have, therefore the only other option is to buy the short
positions back, with a sizable profit I'm sure. Nevertheless, they will
be bought back. Which will add a frenzy of buying, ultimately sparking
the next Bull Run in that market.
Ladies and gentlemen, the time has never
been better to own tangible gold and silver. We all know what gold and
silver are capable of when the buying frenzy starts. You don't need to
be a doomsdayer to know that the worst is yet to come.
- The largest load of bank loans
re-adjusting the first quarter of 2009 and not stopping until
2012
- Bank failures
- Foreclosures
- Rising unemployment
- Inflation
- Crashing U.S. dollar
- The introduction of the North
American Union and the Amero
These are all the
reasons why more and more people are gravitating to tangible metals.
Please feel free to
comment on my blog at:
http://restoretherepublic.net/blog_entry.php?user=AlexP&blogentry_id=1595
and visit my profile and websites below.
In Freedom,

Alex Panameno
National Metals
Advisor
Goldworth Financial
http://GoldWorthFinancial.com